This invention relates to workflow management in general, and to queuing arrangements such as call centers and other communications-processing arrangements in particular.
In call centers, telephone calls and other communications (generically referred to herein as calls) are answered and handled by any of a plurality of human agents or other resources such as interactive voice response systems (generically referred to herein as agents). An automatic call distribution (ACD) system distributes and connects calls to whatever agents are both suited to handle the calls and presently available to handle the calls. When no agents are available to handle calls as they come in, the calls are placed in one or more queues to await agents becoming available to handle them.
A critical function for smooth operation of, and effective routing of calls in, a call center is estimating how long a call will have to wait in a queue before being handled by an agent. This is true by analogy of other workflows as well. Numerous techniques have been developed over time to estimate a call""s wait-time in queue. An illustrative example of such a technique is disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 5,506,898. Various such techniques use a variety of data points to arrive at wait-time estimates, such as when a call enters or exits a queue, how fast a call progresses through a queue, when an agent logs in or out or goes on break or returns from break, etc.
With all such techniques, the maximum accuracy of their estimates is a function of the number of meaningful data points that are available to them as inputs. In high call-volume call centers e.g., ones servicing on the order of a call every second, many data points are available, and hence the techniques can produce quite accurate estimates. In low call-volume call centers, e.g., ones servicing on the order of a call every minute, the number of available data points is relatively limited, and consequently so is the techniques ability to produce accurate estimates. This is also true of call centers that distribute calls among many low-volume splits/skills. Combined with the fact that call-handling times are variable at best and unpredictable at worst (which typically makes the length of time that a call has already been handled a poor predictor of how much longer it will take to complete handling the call), predictions made by these techniques often are unreliable and achieving accuracy of estimates to within a few seconds may not be possible.
This invention is directed to solving these and other problems and disadvantages of the prior art. Generally according to the invention, additional data points are createdxe2x80x94either manually or automaticallyxe2x80x94during the processing of each work item (e.g., call), for use in effecting wait-time estimates to improve the accuracy of wait-time predictions.
The procedure for improved prediction of wait times of calls (generically encompassing any communications) or other work items waiting to be processed (e.g., handled by an agent or another resource or handled by an agent or a resource different from the one that is presently handling the work item) involves obtaining information about a plurality of items that are presently being processed, using the obtained information to estimate times to completion of processing (e.g., either full completion, or completion of a particular processing task or step) of those items and then using those estimated times to predict the wait times of that plurality of the items that are waiting to be processed. Illustratively, the processing of the items that are being processed is effected by a plurality of agents (generically encompassing any desired call-processing resources), and estimation of times to processing completion involves estimating when those agents will become available to process otherxe2x80x94the waitingxe2x80x94items. Alternatively, part of the processing of the items is effected by interactive systems, such as interactive voice response systems, and estimation of times to processing completion involves estimating when those items will request or become ready for processing by live agents. Preferably, the obtaining of information about items that are presently being processed involves obtaining information about an item at each point of a plurality of points in the processing of the item, which information is relevant to how long completion of the processing of the item is likely to take. In the case of calls, this may be, for example, information identifying the call type of each of the calls that are presently being processed, or information identifying the present stage of processing of each of those calls. The use of the estimated times-to-processing-completion as predictors of wait times of waiting items illustratively involves applying the obtained information about the items that are presently being processed to historical information about previously-processed items to estimate when the resources will become available to process the other items, and then using the estimated times as predicted wait times, either directly or after adjusting the estimated times by using the historical information about waiting times of the previously-processed items.
A method according to the invention comprises the steps of the just-characterized procedure, while an apparatus according to the invention effects the method steps. The apparatus preferably includes an effectorxe2x80x94any entity that effects the corresponding step, unlike a meansxe2x80x94for each step. The invention further encompasses a computer-readable medium containing instruction which, when executed in a computer, cause the computer to perform the method steps.